I think the main difference here is that breaking RSA now just requires scaling up existing approaches, while breaking LWE or anything like that would need a major conceptual breakthrough. The former possibility is much more likely, and in any case, cryptographers are the most paranoid people on the planet for a reason.
Unfortunately, one can never be sure about much in cryptography until P vs NP is solved (and then some).
(Of course, just because some people say that scaling up is enough doesn’t mean it’s actually true. For breaking RSA, we know have Shor’s algorithm, while the only evidence AI bros have from superintelligence coming from scaling is “trust me bro”.)
I think the main difference here is that breaking RSA now just requires scaling up existing approaches, while breaking LWE or anything like that would need a major conceptual breakthrough. The former possibility is much more likely, and in any case, cryptographers are the most paranoid people on the planet for a reason.
Unfortunately, one can never be sure about much in cryptography until P vs NP is solved (and then some).
(Of course, just because some people say that scaling up is enough doesn’t mean it’s actually true. For breaking RSA, we know have Shor’s algorithm, while the only evidence AI bros have from superintelligence coming from scaling is “trust me bro”.)