Right, but what % of people are currently using/demanding inference right now?

Do you expect that % to change between now and 2030?

Unless you expect demand to decrease, I don’t really see how the pricing of the hardware will decrease.

Let’s say the Pets.com of the AI world ends up going bankrupt and their RAM hits the market. Do you expect that the demand for that RAM will be negligible such that pricing returns to earlier levels?

Your predictive model relies on companies that have hardware going out of business and then other people buying up that hardware, but isn’t accounting for the levels of demand that the market will have for that secondhand hardware even if it ends up existing from failed firms.

Unless the demand shifts, the more likely scenario is that companies going out of business will be able to sell off their RAM at higher prices than they bought it at.

There’d need to be a significant inference memory reduction advance (possible) coupled with stagnating or reduced inference demand (unlikely) to see prices come back down.

Wait… how do you imagine a world where there’s demand for frontier grade AI but also that the bubble has popped such that there’s not demand for the chips to run frontier grade AI?

I’m really confused.

They did allow them to be used for war. Anthropic’s only red lines were autonomous weapons (technically still a ways off) and domestic surveillance (it was this one where a ‘No’ would have been relevant right now).

It should really alarm everyone that the US gov is using things like the first ever declaration of an American company as a supply chain risk or calling “fix this insecure code” something requiring export control and IDs to verify citizenship of usage as a way to warn other companies to comply with their illegal usage requests.

Thanks! Updated the numbers for the direct household use.

Also, technically when you account for indirect water use, individuals use closer to around 4,500 gallons per day (Chini, et al. Direct and indirect urban water footprints of the United States (2016)).

Since it’s useful to see large numbers normalized, this is a little less than how much water all US households used in ten days in 2025 (28 billion/day per comment below) and a little under three days of the total water used for US crop irrigation (100 billion per day).

Edit: updated household numbers per comment below

Murder for hire

This guy thinking that girl would have fucked him if only he kept playing FIFA is like the RIAA decades ago thinking I would have bought the CD for an mp3 I downloaded if only there wasn’t Napster.