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Joined 3 years ago
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Cake day: July 5th, 2023

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  • AI companies are bankrupting themselves with training costs that they need to recoup back by selling inference.

    I think they hit a wall in actual returns on performance with pretraining, years ago. Then they started scaling up on post-training/reinforcement learning to continue improvement, but that might be hitting a plateau as well. More recently it looks like they’re relying more heavily on scaling up on inference, which is a significant problem for their long term business models.

    If they’re not able to cheaply deliver inference (and charge at a premium), how will they be able to sustain their businesses?

    It seems that the most recent, largest models are using a lot more tokens to accomplish the same tasks, so even as token cost drops the actual cost of using the latest models seems to be going up with time (even as performance improves).




  • The only solution is to make sure they can’t read data you don’t want shared.

    Isn’t that the appropriate guardrail, then? LLM chats and agents and whatever need to be contained with external permissions settings that the LLMs simply do not and can never have the power to override.

    In a normal customer service setting with human agents, there are still plenty of examples of what a human agent simply doesn’t have the power to do. Often, they’ll need to escalate to a manager to do things like process refunds not just because they weren’t given social permission to do so, but because they weren’t given technical permissions to do so. LLM agents need to be contained in the same way. Any decent use of agents, human or software, requires carefully designed processes and permissions extrinsic to that agent’s own decisionmaking abilities to make sure that agents don’t do something bad for the company.



  • Macbooks have had Thunderbolt 3 (the protocol) over USB-C (the physical form factor) since about 2015. The Thunderbolt 3 protocol became incorporated into the USB 4 standard in 2019 (and is implemented on the physical USB-C port).

    Earlier versions of Thunderbolt were proprietary standards jointly controlled by Apple and Intel, but implemented over Mini-DisplayPort connectors. They were phased out in new devices starting in around 2015.



  • Back in 2002? I don’t think they separated generation and delivery for most utilities, at least in the US. In 1996, federal regulators made it mandatory for utilities with delivery infrastructure to accept generators’ electricity on fair/nondiscriminatory terms, and gave them some time to implement policies. Then, the actual generators started negotiating deals, but the early days were a bit chaotic, with issues in California with rolling blackouts, then the Enron bankruptcy, and then generators actually entering long term contracts with some price stability in the early 2000’s.

    For a typical residential customer who didn’t go out of their way to look for side deals with generators, they wouldn’t have needed to see their bills be segmented out into generation and delivery, since most of the utilities still already had long term contracts (or owned their own generation facilities) still in effect from before the regulatory reform.

    Personally, I didn’t see those numbers separated out on my bill until around 2009. And I remember my electric bill in 2000-2005 being roughly 10 cents per kwh, flat rate.




  • I’m with you.

    GoPro obviously found a really interesting niche that they dominated for about 10 years, and POV videos can still be cool for sports and things like that where the videographer tends not to have hands available for actually holding a camera. I think that’s still pretty cool, and glasses can be a useful form factor for that general use. I’m all for making camera ergonomics better.

    But the AI assistant stuff and the attempts to make them part of the actual day to day (both by attempting to making them fashionable and socially normalizing a camera pointing at everything all the time) is obviously a bad development. Even if we implement countermeasures (re-normalizing masks in public, making lighting terrible for digital cameras, etc.) it wouldn’t be a symmetrical effort.




  • and every forum had rules against bumping, typically only once in 24 hours, and only like once or twice.

    You’re talking about pure bumping where someone has a zero-content comment like “bump” and nothing else. I’m talking about the entire spectrum of low to high quality content, from “bump” to the general phenomenon of reviving old threads to soft bumps like adding additional useless information to an unanswered request.

    Other examples include stupid arguments that needed moderation to be shut down (a phpBB or vBulletin post that spanned 50+ pages in a forum where 3-4 was the norm, all because 2 users wouldn’t shut the fuck up), always occupying the top of the chronological sort.

    The point is that any active forum with more than 1000 comments per day needed to be heavily moderated. User votes allowed forums to scale beyond that limited size. Chronological sort was terrible and didn’t scale beyond a group of 100-200 users (not coincidentally similar to Dunbar’s number), which is why any decent forum today doesn’t do it by default, including any totally free and open source forums, like the fediverse forum platforms of Lemmy and Piefed and Mbin. And even choosing to put these platforms on pure chronological sort reduces the quality of the overall experience.

    Honestly, I dont know how anyone can say that the days before gamification, before adpocalypse, before billionaire hijacking of the internet for their own personal ends, is worse than what we have today. It borders on either lunacy, or propaganda.

    I’m talking about the use of user voting, which undoubtedly improved the quality of forums (along with comment threading so that each comment could branch off into its own collapsible side discussion) when slashdot and a bunch of copycats started doing similar things (see HN, Reddit). You can’t look at Reddit in 2026 and complain that the sorting algorithms they implemented in 2005 or 2007 made things worse. No, things got worse around 2015-2020 when the front page algorithm stopped prioritizing quality over engagement bait.


  • Jevon’s Paradox is that when there’s more of a resource to consume, humans will consume more resource rather than make the gains to use the resource better.

    More specifically, it’s when an improvement in efficiency cause the underlying resource to be used more, because the efficiency reduces cost and then using that resource becomes even more economically attractive.

    So when factories got more efficient at using coal in the 19th century, England saw a huge increase in coal demand, despite using less coal for any given task.